“If you are bored and disgusted by politics and don’t bother to vote, you are in effect voting for the entrenched Establishments of the two major parties, who please rest assured are not dumb, and who are keenly aware that it is in their interests to keep you disgusted and bored and cynical and to give you every possible reason to stay at home doing one-hitters and watching MTV on primary day. By all means stay home if you want, but don’t bullshit yourself that you’re not voting. In reality, there is no such thing as not voting: you either vote by voting, or you vote by staying home and tacitly doubling the value of some Diehard’s vote.”
The quote was about John McCain and the 2000 South Carolina primary but it still holds truth.
Sorry, political post, but this has been jostling around in my brainmeats for the last few weeks and I’m finally tossing it up on my blog. It started with the Bill Simmons interview with Barack Obama on sports fandom and why it pushed certain buttons in my brain and percolated into this itch.
I like my leaders to be sports fans. I don’t know why. I don’t have a rational reason. Their sports fandom or lack thereof does not impact their ability to make decisions on foreign or domestic policy in any conceivable way. But it’s one of those things I like. I like sports, they like sports, even if we hate each other on every other topic we have a common ground to share. I want my leaders to be honest rabid fans of something. I want to read their diatribes in interviews. I want to know they care about stuff I care about. It’s a thing.
I’m not the only one and it is not only this election year. Frex, Nixon was a notorious rabid professional football fan. Here’s an old clip from a Hunter S. Thompson interview about Pat Buchanan, Richard Nixon and football:
Oh, boy. The Raiders were playing against the Packers, which was Nixon’s team, and nobody else on the press bus could talk about it, they were afraid of Nixon on football. He was known to be a hard rocker and very involved. And (press secretary) Patrick Buchanan — I’ve always liked Patrick Buchanan — he was looking for somebody to ride with the boss and talk football, and these other guys, political wizards, nobody volunteered. I was the only one on the press bus who volunteered.
You know, Gerald Ford played Center for University of Michigan. Ronald Reagan played 4 years of college ball, did sports broadcasting, and played Knute Rockne in the biographical movie (thus “The Gipper.”) Bill Clinton never met a golf ball he didn’t like — dude still sponsors the Bob Hope PGA Classic every year. And George W. Bush, say whatever you want to say about the guy, was some sort of Rhodes Scholar of Baseball. Guy could go in depth on the impact of All Star games from the 40s and 50s on how they play ball today. Hate the guy’s politics, I’d totally listen at his feet for his Baseball Wisdom. He’s like the Baseball Buddha.*
Obama is a basketball super-fiend. I keep hoping, when he’s done being President of the United States, he gets a rotating spot on ESPN Sportscenter. When he was running in 2008, I appreciated a completely random rant on the BCS and why it should die in fire. I thought, okay, on this, man, we are totally on the same page. McCain’s responses to the BCS were weak and flaccid but Obama? Dude thought about the Greatest Issue Facing Us Today and had OPINIONS. Say what you want, but when it comes to sports, well, I don’t agree with Obama on his love for the Tar Heels and I’m not as big into the Bulls but hey, we can’t have everything. (I picked the Wildcats to win Tourney.)
When I see stuff like this I just wince. Romney, after gaffs about “knowing NASCAR team owners” and “knowing the owner of the Miami Dolphins” coughs up this gem:
The Republican presidential candidate said Tuesday he won’t fill
out a bracket — an annual tradition for tens of millions of Americans — because he hasn’t been playing close enough attention.
“I’m not plugged in well enough this year to do that,” Romney told reporters in Missouri.
He said that in Missouri where Missou is a #2 Tourney seed. I’m running around going dude stop now. It’s bad enough he sounds like Richy McRich, but he couldn’t even find some intern on his staff to fill out a bracket for him and brandish it around showing University of Missouri winning. To even pretend. For Christ’s sake, dude! And I get from him that in his gilded, closeted life, the guy has no passions about anything — and he went to BYU, a legitimate basketball school. And Stanford. And Harvard. From none of this did he get one ounce of love for Tourney. The mind boggles. He is a Rombot.
I have no idea if Santorum or Gingrich watch sports or like sports or even conceive of An Exciting Sporting Event. What would I talk to these guys about? As much as I deride the whole “I could have a beer with the President,” I couldn’t have a beer with these guy. I just… don’t… know. Do they watch Sportscenter? Do their eyes glance over the Sports Illustrated page or try to call up one of various apps to get the scores while on the road? Would they do that sort of thing? I just don’t know!
What I’m saying in a roundabout manner is that this stuff is important. I like the passion. I like the interest in something other than the job. When they talk about “connecting with voters,” it’s this kind of thing. It’s NCAA Brackets. It’s having a Super Bowl party. It’s Dubya choking on a pretzel during a Rangers game. It’s being Nixon on the bus terrifying people with his insane football Eyebeams.
* Buddha was neither short nor fat. Just so you know.
Note: I am slowly converting Nephilim, an old Chaosium game, over to Dresden Files FATE. I am just flopping all the posts on my blog because I can tag and collect them all later. This stuff is in no particular order. You can buy Nephilim in PDF from DriveThruRPG for ~$17. You should also buy Dresden Files RPG.
How to Summon 101
1. Determine the Complexity of the Summoning. This is the target Summoning’s Conviction. If the Complexity is higher than the Summoner’s Lore, the Summoner must find ways to gain bonus shifts to equal to or overcome the Summoning’s Conviction.
- If the Summoning’s Element is equal to the Summoner’s Element, the Summoner receives +1 shift to overcome Complexity.
- If the Summoner is in a Plexus, the Summoner receives +1 shift to overcome Complexity.
- If the Summoner is in a Nexus, the Summoner receives +2 shifts to overcome Complexity.
- If the Summoner has a Focus, the Summoner may use the Focus to overcome Complexity.
- If the Summoner has applicable Aspects, the Summoner may invoke the Aspects for proper shifts.
2. The Summoning arrives. Social Combat begins. Deceit, Intimidation and Rapport are typically used to attack; Empathy and Rapport to defend. The player can throw other skills in for good measure during combat if they fit — Conviction and Discipline may get involved. Presence modifies the stress track.
3. Rules for combat starts on page 197 of Dresden Files: Your Story. This includes throwing in bribes, using Aspects, and giving gifts. The Summoner will exchange with the Summoned Attacks, Blocks and Maneuvers until one side or the other is Taken Out.
4. If the Summoned Creature is Taken Out, the Summoned Creature agrees to terms with the Summoned. The creature carries out the contract.
5. If the Summoner is Taken Out, the Contract Ruptures.
Should the Summoner fail the social contest with the Summoned, the Contract Ruptures and the Summoned has the upper hand. Depending on the Conviction of the creature, the kind of Summoning, the level of failure against the Summoning, and the GM’s perchance for handing out pain, ruptures are from Gentlest to Harshest:
Disappearing: the creature returns to its plane of origin.
Immobility: the creature just sits there in the Pentacle during the entire duration of its Contract. It cannot be dismissed; it just sits there.
Flight: the creature escapes from the Pentacle and flies loose until its Contract expires. It is fully visible to humans and Nephilim alike.
Befuddlement: the creature executes the Contract in the wrong way.
Attack: the creature turns its powers on the Summoner. This begins Physical Combat between the Nephilim and the Summoned Creature. Once the Nephilim defeats the creature, the Summoned returns to its home plane.
Capture: the creature turns its powers on the Summoner and begins Physical Combat as above. Should the Summoned Creature Take Out the Summoner, the Summoned Creature will attempt to carry the Nephilim off to its home plane.
Possession: the creature turns its powers on the Summoner and begins Physical Combat as above. Should the Summoned Creature Take Out the Summoner, the Summoned Creature will kick the Nephilim out of its Simulacrum and walk off with it. The Nephilim must immediately find a new host body or return to its Stasis. The Summoned Being in the Simulacrum may stay on the physical plane wreaking havoc until defeated.
I, for one, celebrate the death of Osama bin Laden. He was a pox, a barnacle, a cancer dragging the national psyche into a continuous cycle of fear and hatred. He was a face of national failure. He hit us, he lead us into two wars, and he was still out there, somewhere, lurking. Now we, as an entire people, get closure.
Closure is for everyone. The Middle East can move on. Instead of bin Laden, the face of the Middle East are kids in Tahrir Square bringing down Mubarak or the hideous struggle for freedom in Syria where more are being mowed down by Bashir al Assad’s thugs. Instead of terrorism and drugs and guns and fundamentalism, it’s Democracy. OBL was a tool for dictators to justify the repression of their people. Now he’s gone.
The US needed it, too. A clean break. A victory that feels like a clean victory. And a US-style testosterone laden victory at that. We didn’t use foreign troops or bombs. We sent in Navy SEALS and shot OBL in the head. Movies, television shows, books, video games to follow. After market crash and terrible recession and crazy stupidity and no one feeling good about anything, we needed this.
I disagree that this will dissipate and fade with the next news cycle, too. This is the stuff of mythology. A bad guy, a detective story, a multi-month hunt, a tense President giving the order, brave guys with guns and helicopters flying in the middle of the night, a dramatic firefight. This isn’t reality, this is narrative. Narrative is sticky. The story presses all the little Man with a Thousand Faces buttons.
What have we learned?
- Human intelligence is crucial. Guys on the ground talking to people are infinitely more useful than hoovering up unlimited data and trying to sift through it. The police state is not very effective in finding a guy living in an Islamabad suburb. Who would have thought?
- Quality security is infinitely better than quantity security.
- Torture doesn’t work. All the information gleaned that lead to Osama bin Laden came from — shock — standard interrogation techniques. Torture as a method for extracting information should be outlawed. Period.
- Terrorism is a police action, and terrorism is a crime. Sure it took the CIA and the Navy SEALS to take OBL out, but most of the run up was hard-core detective work. Maybe next time the US won’t go randomly invading countries.
- Again, terrorism is a crime. OBL was a criminal. He murdered people.
- Barack Obama has nerves of steel. Man. When he said he had better things to do than mess with his long form birth certificate, the man was not kidding.
- Our guys are flat-out awesome. *wave little flag*
- We need to start really talking about the role of the crazy security industrial complex. Want to find things to cut in the budget? I have some interesting ideas!
So yay. Rock. I’m all for moving past OBL forever and ever and seeing what Egypt and Tunisia and the other countries are going to do in a post-OBL world where the world moves on.
I have been ignoring politics for the last several weeks to focus on learning Objective-C and knit and read giant security tomes and generally doing other things. Tonight I made the mistake of reading the blogs. So let me get this right:
1. Republicans hate ObamaCare because of the universal mandate to buy health insurance. Fair enough.
2. Republicans have just offered a budget that….
a. Cancels all of Medicare except for those already enrolled in it.
b. Replaces Medicare with a universal mandate to buy health insurance except…
c. It is only for seniors and…
d. It is subsidized by a voucher system paid out of everyone’s 15.3% FICA tax.
Oooookay. No one listens to themselves speak, I guess. Also…
1. Obama puts down universal mandate. This is called socialist, communist, Islamofascist (??), atheist, and evil.
2. Republicans put down universal mandate. It is called courageous, brilliant, and daring.
At this point, I am going back to knitting and learning Objective-C. Someone can tell me when it’s safe to come out of my hole again because this is more crazy than I can handle.
I am having difficulty forming a coherent and useful opinion on what the US is doing with the UK and France in Libya. I have purposefully kept myself confined to facts and stayed away from opinion but I still can’t really get my mind around it.
On the one hand, enormous massacres of civilian populations by heavily armed militaries defending insane dictators are generally a bad thing from a human rights perspective. Especially when these massacres are broadcast on TV. This creates pressure to “do something.”
On the other hand, I have two major objections. The first is that this isn’t really clear that bombing Libya does anything to further US interests. I am certain it is important from an oil perspective but it’s unclear it is as important as, say, the mess in Yemen or the Saudis invading Bahrain to stop the protests or the rapid militarization of the Iranian government. Second: I have never believed that freedom can be given. I have always believed that it must be earned, even if it means horrible things happen without outside intervention. Freedom forced upon a people from without is just another word for oligarchy.
So what does the US involving itself in a Civil War between a brutal dictator and a bunch of people holing up in several towns with guns in Northern Africa do? I just don’t have a great answer. I’m not sure what the goal is.
I suspect there is no correct answer to Libya. Either you stand by and do nothing and watch the atrocity and listen as people scream that you do something (that ‘something’ being highly undefined) or you ‘do something’ and everyone screams that doing something isn’t the right thing/isn’t good enough/is too interventionist/isn’t interventionist enough. You half do something like firing missiles off submarines and that’s too much/not enough.
And after writing this small blurb on it I realize that there is no answer, it’s a crappy situation, and no matter what happens people who bear no responsibility for the decision are going to sit around and crow and point fingers and scream that so-and-so should do this/not do this/is weak/etc. I find I am personally not crazy about the decision to start bombing the place because either the locals oust Qaddafi or not and find their own way or not. At the end of the day, the locals have to live there tomorrow. It’s their home. And we get to change the channel.
Pension plan management is traditionally a very dull job. A huge group of people in a big corporation or a union contribute a chunk of their* monthly paychecks into the collected pension fund where a normally 3rd party company manages the contributes and tries to make them grow more than the rate of current inflation to ensure a fund is viable for future retirees. Traditionally, the managing companies put this money into blue chip funds and treasury bills. It was not an exciting job but there are many Big Pools of Money.
But in the 2002, 2003 time frame, this changed. Surely by now you have all gone and listened to the Planet Money archives, you have listened to the Giant Pool of Money show from This American Life and you even read Michael Lewis’s the Big Short. Money manager for pension funds received bonuses for growing pension plans over the rate of inflation and Wall Street had brand, swanky new cannot-fail products to sell for big fees. First they sold mortgage backed securities and when all the mortgages there were disappeared the junk left behind was sliced and diced into Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). Who bought all this crap? State pension fund managers. Obviously someone bought all this garbage — otherwise no one was making any money off sales.
In 2007, the market crashed and the pension fund managers were left with huge amounts of the pension plans being zeroed out. The states were contractually obligated to be on the hook to cover the pension funds mismanaged by their third party fund managers. The Obama Administration swooped in, passed a stimulus, and gave giant block grants to the states to help them meet their obligations. This bought the states a couple of years.
It’s pretty straight forward. State unions entrusted the management of their pension plans to the state to manage. The state outsourced it to a company that bought the Wall Street line of fast, easy money. The market crashed. The money taken from the State unions went *poof*. Now the states have, instead of firing the money managers and pressing the Federal Government to force regulations to protect their future obligations, decided to Union-bust. Which is ridiculous policy.
What galls me most about what is going on in Wisconsin are the lies. The argument is essentially this:
“We have a multi-decade agreement in place with our workers to assist in their retirement that they pay into. We lost it all gambling. But we love gambling on exotic bond instruments we don’t understand so very much we have decided gamble more and fire them all! Aren’t we great civil servants?”
Why not tell people the truth? The state lost the money on a shell game. The money managers were trying to make big bonuses and lost the whole fund investing in crappy developments in Florida. The state has contractual obligations and has to make up the shortfall because that’s how legally these things work. So that means either the unions have to take some kind of cut until the pension plan is repaid in full or the revenue will have to be raised. The holes were somewhat covered by the stimulus but with the Republicans in charge and no second round of stimulus, there’s going to be a change and it will have to come in the form of a raise in gas tax/sin tax/etc. Oh, also, we have new money managers. It’s their fault, they need to own up, and come up with a solution.
But no. “UNIONS ARE EVIL ALL MUST DIE DIE DIE.” In this day in age, our politicians don’t have the balls to tell the simple truth. Instead they grandstand. I would pay good money for a single politician who could be bothered to read a damn newspaper or understand the problem.
It might have helped if the Obama Administration could explain anything they do to people but that is, as they say, another story.
* Yes, theirs.
I have seen on the Internets: “The Iraq War cost $3 trillion. We could have saved $2.99 trillion and given the rest to Al Jazeera to get the same net result.” I am not positive it’s a misplaced sentiment. Free and unfettered political speech combined with political corruption is a terribly powerful force for change.
What Happened in Egypt?
Food insecurity is at the root. Food prices have risen as much as 30% in much of the Middle East. When people live on $5 a day are faced with food insecurity, people riot. The root is right here in CNN.
In Egypt alone, food prices soared 17% — in part because of the worldwide surge in commodities prices but also because of local supply imbalances.
Egypt also has a recorded unemployment of ~9.5% but the real numbers are likely much harder.
Then there was the story of Khalid Said. Young businessman Khalid Said saw a drug deal go down between two corrupt policemen in Alexandria, caught the video on his cellphone, and uploaded it up to YouTube. The police came around and beat him to death. It was a year ago — but long enough for him to become a symbol.
And then there was January 25th, a date Hosni Mubarak put on the map for the very first time as “We Love the Secret Police Day.” No really.
Mix in Tunisia, Wikileaks, Facebook organization, a little bit of twitter, SMS, Al Jazeera, and *kerpow*
Mubarak is playing the Iranian waiting game. He believes he can wait out the people in the streets by shutting down the banks, unleashing prisoners, destroying property, pulling the police out to allow mayhem, and terrorizing people with the military. But people with no jobs and no food have no where else better to be. And thus there is an impasse. It’s not even clear a Tienanmen Square-style massacre would disperse people at this point.
Perhaps Mubarak is simply waiting for the protesters to starve.
Either way, he is critically weakened as a strongman. He no longer has the backing of his people and his leverage is rapidly vaporizing.
On the other hand, Egypt has never had anything resembling a democracy. It’s unclear it can get there itself without some help. But, unlike lots of people who are wringing their hands, I’m sort of certain where there is a will there is a way and once people have a taste of lovely free speech and freedom to assemble and free press they have a hard time giving it back up. We’ll see.
Everyone is talking about the Muslim Brotherhood. If there were parliamentary elections in Egypt, they would take a number of seats. That is certain. Mubarak carefully terrorized and destroyed all of the secular political parties that might have threatened his reign but left the Brothers in a stunted state. They are the only ones with a political apparatus in place. The Wikipedia page isn’t bad. If they will be become crazies or if they will participate in the political process is to be seen.
The clear winner in all this is Al Jazeera. They have had a 2500% (yes, the number is right) growth in traffic to their site, most of it from the US. The servers came down for a while on Friday but donations and half the IT in Qatar is busy trying to keep them online. They’ve always been goofy but no goofier than our cable news — they just have a different point of view.
I am of two minds about this book. Either:
* Everyone in the world should read this book
… or …
* No one should /ever/ read this book.
When The Big Short first came out, I heard about it on NPR, listened to a review on Planet Money, listened to an interview with Michael Lewis on Planet Money, heard several more people talk about this book, and then decided not to read it for ‘rage management’ reasons. Planet Money recently released their recommended books about the crash and the economy and, this time around, I felt enough time passed between the crash and now that the rage would be a lesser rage, that I would not throw my Kindle into the wall, and the teeth grinding would be lessened.
The Big Short is a concise history of Wall Street from 2003-2008. By following the lives, and trades, of several sets of investors who saw the crash coming from miles away, the book delves deeply into the world of mortgage backed securities. As well as anyone can, it explains bond trading, tranches, credit default swaps (CDS), collatoralized debt obligations (CDOs), and synthesized CDOs which are CDOs made, bewilderingly, of other CDOs. Then the book goes on to talk about the crazy trader at Deutsche Bank who ran around selling CDSes on everything, the bond trader group — who used to be equity traders — who went short on everything they could find, the doctor come hedge fund manager who fought endlessly to tell his investors that these no-doc, negative amortizing adjustable rate mortgages with 2 year teaser rates were going to blow up and they did not listen, the kids from Berkeley who tried to make a killing and the people who actually went long on these things.
The pinnacle of the book is the "Wing Chau" scene, where the equity trader met someone on the other side of his trades who, in 2006, when bonds were already going bad, was convinced of the status quo forever and ever. Then the equity trader went home going "oh my god…"
The game was rigged. In theory Americans would refinance every two years from one terrible mortgage to the next to generate endless fees to dump into endless bonds that pretended to be "riskless." In the end, the mortgage deals blew up and the huge bundles of bonds were not riskless. Housing did not increase in value forever.
And yes, the few people who saw it coming made hundreds of millions off the crash, but at what cost to society as a whole? Most of them left, never to return to the game. They made their money but the cost to themselves was so high it wasn’t worth it anymore.
It’s a story of massive collective delusion, of outright greed, of fraud, of lies, of gamed rating agencies, of banks shifting massive untold risk on to their shareholders, of normal banking becoming too ‘boring’, of an industry who sucked up trillions of dollars and produced nothing, and of people who were playing with things they had no hope of understanding. A story of a giant game played with people’s homes and people’s ignorance on a mass scale and turning the American homeowner into just one dot in a giant Ponzi Scheme that was bailed out, no questions asked, by the US Government with even more of the American homeowner’s money.
The book has an incredibly hooky style. It’s clear. It’s concise. It’s sarcastic. It’s entertaining. It’s compulsive. It reads quickly. It’s also a drive by on a twenty car accident on a freeway. I want desperately to recommend it but I feel everyone who reads this book will promptly sell their house, pull their money out of the banks, and go live on a compound somewhere in Western Michigan.
Seriously two thumbs up but now, when I read the economics blogs — all which recommend the Big Short — I am always going to think about one bond trader screaming at another one: "I’M SHORTING YOUR HOUSE!"
View all my reviews
Egypt is melting down and it is an exceedingly big deal. The causes are complex, the people are angry, and as the Arab world’s most populous nation, it is a major strategic US and Israel ally. Not only that but somehow the entire country fell off the Online Map this morning — a fairly breathtaking technological feat.
Meanwhile protests continue also in Yemen and Jordan.
Instead of going on and on about it, here’s some useful links:
Al Jazeera’s Anger in Egypt — English Language, lots and lots and lots of clips, interviews, and analysis. Rumor has it that the Egyptian police raided the Al Jazeera offices in Cairo today…’
The Guardian has live updates.
Wired has a follow the Arab World Protests Online page.
The Daily Show on the sources of unrest is spot on. Team W! Team O! Team Twitter!
Andrew Sullivan (over at the Atlantic) is doing a great job following everything going on with posts, links and clips.
Anyone these days can have their official response to the SOTU speech. This isn’t so much a response as what I wish Obama would have said.
SCENE: Obama comes out and shakes hands with the Notorious Aisle Whores. He waves to the C-SPAN camera because it is the only love C-SPAN will get until the call-in show. He goes up to the podium and scans the crowd and tries to look Presidential.
“My fellow Americans, I will make this brief because we’re all busy and, besides, House is on at 10.” Obama turns around and looks right at John Boehner who, in a strange way, matches his chair. “John, can I borrow your iPhone?”
Boehner, confused, hands it over. Obama holds it up to the crowd.
“We all know what this is. You, there, Congressman Fiddlepot, I can see you tweeting your constituents from here. If you don’t have one yet you will. You will have one in a month when Verizon rolls them out. I want to talk about this little device for a moment.
“This device was conceived, designed, built, and tested by a publicly traded American company staffed with American engineers and scientists. Many of these smart engineers and scientists were educated here, in America, in our land grant public universities. Many attended our public school systems. The core research for the microprocessors, the materials, the batteries, and the screen were made possible by federal research grants to our schools. Every day, they work together on the Internet, invented by the Department of Defense. It uses GPS, also invented by our Department of Defense, bounced off satellites — satellites whose launch mechanisms were invented by Government programs, put in place by Government programs, and then opened to commercial enterprise. Verizon’s new network is subsidized by the Government so they have the money to build infrastructure. Apple is now even opening new markets with their apps and app stores, which is generating new business — built, running and developed by Americans who learned how to build it with the help of Pell Grants to pay for school. When you go to buy your new device from the store, you drive on taxpayer-invested roads. All this to bring Angry Birds and Twitter to you on the floor of Congress.
“And not only that. Surely you have seen the news about Iran and Tunisia. This device is bringing more freedom, faster, with less bloodshed then all the bombs we dropped in our two ongoing wars. This is a tool for global communication, for spreading ideas, and for bringing together peaceful protest. And it comes from here, America. This is how we should approach allocating taxpayer money — not as a burden of taxation but as an investment in our future. /This/ is the future. Our grand technological future.
“I agree the tax code is an absolute mess. I agree we can make budget cuts — and not just in discretionary spending. The Federal Government is a sprawling nightmare. We can work together to get worked out. But every time you pass around another tweet, I want you, the lawmaker, to think about where the money goes. Only American innovation makes us great and we only get there from paying for the infrastructure, research, technology, student loans, research grants and schools to make that happen.
“We can beat the Chinese. We can beat India. We just need to say, we want to be great scientists and engineers again and make it happen.
“It’s not an iPhone. It’s a FreedomPhone. Make your calls and your tweets, but remember that it took us to get there.
“Barry, out, yo.”
Obama gives the iPhone back to Boehner and saunters on out of the gallery. He stops and gives C-SPAN a thumb’s up.
Okay, it’s full of hyperbole, but I don’t have a staff of professional speechwriters!
One of the questions I have seen bantered back and forth through the vitriol on the Internet is: “If Jared Lee Loughner was obviously schizophrenic and full of disorganized and confused thought, as many people who interacted with him reported, why did he not get help?”
Some thoughts on why:
1. Schizophrenia appears in young men around the end of puberty, between 18-25.
2. By time it starting showing obvious, overt signs of disorganized thought, he was unlikely to still be on his parent’s health insurance. It was only this year that a child could be on the parent’s health insurance until age 26.
3. According to reports, his father didn’t work and his mother had an hourly job with the city. Who knows if they even had health insurance, or if the city health insurance plan covered mental illness, which it probably did not.
4. He couldn’t hold a job and didn’t have any health insurance himself. The few jobs he had were big box stores and sandwich shops.
Getting into a psychiatrist, getting evaluated, getting seen meant seeing a doctor. That meant having coverage because the family was unlikely to have the cash on hand for psychiatrist visits. Even being involuntarily committed to a hospital for emergency treatment meant the uninsured going to a hospital where there would be incurred in-patient costs, doctor costs, medication costs. The costs for medications alone to help curb the effects of schizophrenia would be incredibly prohibitive for parents making little money and, of course, he would be totally uninsurable going forward because had he seen a doctor he would then have a “pre-existing condition.” And he would have that for the rest of his life. Those medications meant constant ongoing, expensive costs.
If he had gotten diagnosed — which was a very expensive and probibitive hill to climb to begin with — maybe he could have eventually gone on Medicaid, but at what toll? To live in poverty so he could get medications to control the hallucinations? That’s an option, but he would have had to get there, first.
The stark reality is that this country has terrible support for childhood and late adolescence mental illness but the seriously mentally ill can stroll casually into a Sportsman’s Warehouse and buy a gun with an extended clip. This says more about our priorities as a society than anything else that has been said the last five days about what happened in Tuscon. The system failed.
We stand at an ugly intersection of where health care for the mentally ill is prohibitive but gun access is trivial. We cannot have one and have the other and expect to live in in safety. We either put up with “nuts with guns” who kill little girls or this changes. If anything comes out of this tragedy, I hope we at least begin to talk about how difficult it is to get people like Jared Lee Loughner help long before it is too late.
Years ago, Terry Gilliam made an excellent and understated movie called “The Fisher King” starring Jeff Bridges and Robin Williams. Jeff Bridges starts the movie off as an incredibly popular “shock jock” who specializes in making shocking statements to rile up his audience — popular in the 90s, popular now. A disturbed young man calls in to ask Jeff Bridges about something during the call-in show and Jeff Bridges’s character, playing to his audience, makes some nasty comments to the disturbed kid. The disturbed kid then takes a semi-automatic into a high-end restaurant and massacres the diners, including Robin William’s character’s wife.
There’s a saying: “Politics is Hollywood for ugly people.” Politics has always had a certain entertainment aspect to it. Saying utterly ridiculous things and getting them repeated in the media is a time-honored tradition since Benjamin Franklin Bache published the politics gossip rag the Philadelphia Aurora. Politicial speech has a certain one-ups-manship to it where, in the heat of a campaign, the more outrageous a statement, the more the base is fired up to go out and vote. And in this call-and-response environment where one is surrounded by one’s followers, one is tempted to say some pretty ridiculous things.
However, someone running for political office indicates that person wishes to be, ultimately, a leader of men. And a leader of men has to be cognizant of how their words will resonate, not just with the base or with trying to “get” the enemy, but with other people, out there, who might be listening — who probably are listening. Those people may not hear your remarks to “reload” or “use Second Amendment Solutions” as rhetorical campaign speech. They may take it literally. Saturate the airwaves with enough of this rhetoric and it will reach out to someone, somewhere.
This rhetoric of guns and murder and “getting them” in our political speech isn’t just Internet mouthbreathers. It’s everywhere: in political commercials that play during campaign seasons 24/7, on YouTube, on Facebook, on the Sunday talk shows, on Twitter, in newspapers, and on talk radio. It even leaks onto NPR. It’s inescapable and it has clearly gotten out of control.
My entire point is this: If you wish to stand up and put yourself forward as a leader of men, you need to be mindful of what is coming out of your mouth, the tone you take, and how it might be received. You might think it’s fun to use gun and violence in your political speech to score points and add a little swagger but more than your followers are listening. You know it will be picked up by partisan press and repeated and amplified a million times. It may be a young man with easy access to semi-automatic firearms with schizophrenia and command hallucinations who listens to you as one of the many authorities floating around and it just… helps things along. You simply do not know and it is your job to lead. If you lead with vicious speech full of violence, you will reap what you sow.
Also, I absolutely agree with the Mighty God King.
There’s other things here — how does someone with schizophrenia walk into a sporting goods store and buy a semi-automatic, why was he never given help, why did our health care system fail yet again, etc. etc. but the root, the core, is a culture currently seeped on TV and the Internet and the radio with violence against elected officials and it’s got to stop.
After the final repeal vote for Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, Senator Burr of North Carolina (R-NC) released an interesting statement. No, he did not personally support repealing DADT but he voted for the repeal anyway because his world was no longer this world. He’s an 80 year old man legislating on the morality of 20-somethings, and his view on the world is no longer their view of the world. The world has moved on.
People forget that the military was integrated by a stroke of a pen by Harry S Truman long before interracial marriages were legal or civil rights passed. The military, stoic and conservative, has always been on the bleeding edge of civil rights for a very simple reason: if you want to serve, here’s a gun. We need bodies, go go go. The military cannot afford to be picky in an all-volunteer army and here they were being told to be picky.
The end result of DADT was 13,000 people given involuntary honorable discharges regardless of their performance. It instituted date rape — sleep with me or else I will claim you’re a lesbian. It fostered an atmosphere of fear when the fear should be those guys over there shooting, not being kicked out for filling in a same-sex name for life insurance benefits.
So first goes the military, and then when the world fails to end, goes everyone else.
What the McCains of the world are railing against and gnashing their teeth and swearing vengence on is not the integration of a small population of the military with the rest of the greater population of the military. They are railing against their world ending. The morals of their generation are passing and the new generation isn’t quite so uptight about things. Generation Xers and the following generations simply do not care about gay or straight or lesbian or bi the same way their forebears did. We have Ellen on daytime TV and Neil Patrick Harris on How I Met Your Mother and gay friends on twitter and on facebook and gay blogs and it’s all out there. As a voting block coming to age and coming to power, we don’t care. It is not an issue for us. Senator Burr was amazingly cognizant of this simple fact: on this issue of Civil Rights, Generation X is just going to wait until the Boomers all die and give the gays integration with the military and eventually gay marriage and universal gay adoption and gay equality. You can either roll your eyes and scream and yell and freak out or move on.
Yay for a victory. It will be interesting to see how the changes are implemented.
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Here’s how a tax cut for those making piles and piles and piles of dough works for those of us who do not, due to various circumstances and life choices, make piles and piles of dough:
Step 1: Take out a shiny new Chinese Co credit card with an introductory low low teaser rate and a huge limit.
Step 2: Take a huge cash advance on that Chinese Co credit card.
Step 3: Find the richest person with the biggest house around.
Step 4: Give cash advance to said person.
Step 5: Watch said person light money on fire.
Step 6: Go pay interest payments on that Chinese Co credit card in perpetuity.
So much for all those campaigns on fiscal responsibility and ‘having to get our house in order.’ We get to extend the tax cuts and the estate tax over $5 million thing and some sort of payroll tax holiday and the unemployment insurance extension. I am for one of these (the unemployment insurance extension) which will, of course, sunset because it’s for people trapped in awful circumstances, and can only see the rest becoming permanent, which are for people who are not.
The payroll tax break is supposed to sunset in a year but really? Honestly? It will be extended forever and ever because we need to protect our middle class voters in a time of recession that will certainly still be going on and we cannot place burdens on our middle class when we are not. Isn’t the money coming out of Social Security? How does that get paid now? Magic fairy dust? And having the big tax cuts expire in an election year? What genius thought that up?
They should have asked me. I would have recommended printing $800 billion in small bills, giving everyone in the US a marshmallow, having a huge bonfire, and inviting everyone. At least we would have gotten toasted marshmallows.
Over at Naked Capitalism there’s a nice post that has a chart with the stimulative effect of various spending programs. Food stamps, unemployment insurance, building stuff people use — all good stuff. Everything else? FABOOSH.
But hey. All those people getting more money can use it to invest in more Chinese businesses.
This crap is like the TSA arguments. Circular and stupid. No way to win because no one with a spine will stand up and say “this crap has to stop.” Oh, by the way, we are wasting more government funds to put crappy video messages about scary scary brown people in Walmarts because, you know, that’s where terrorists from Pakistan go. Walmart. Presumably to buy socks made by the Chinese.