I’m sticking to my guns here.  Coronavirus news only.  Anything and everything else seems designed like a missile to make me vibrate in rage.

Vox had a great explainer yesterday — Covid-19 cases are rising, but the death toll is falling.  What is going on? Vox reporting through this whole mess has been universally good and I’ve appreciated their explainers even when digging through papers and more technical dives into the reality of COVID-19.

If you read it, you’ll see the explanation is two pronged:

First

COVID-19 takes a while to kill people.  You don’t get it and instantly die.  You get it, and then you have a cytokene storm, then you drown in your own lungs, and then you die.  Not everyone’s body overreacts in such an aggressive way.   If COVID-19 is going to kill you, it takes its own sweet time.  It took Nick Cordero an agonizing 91 days to die of COVID-19.

It’s  not like you’re struck with a bullet.  It’s a disease.  Even fast killers like bubonic plague and smallpox can take weeks to kill a victim.

If the rise in cases started around the second week of June, it will take a while for the death rate to start bobbing up.  If you look at the Covid Tracking Data for Texas, you can see this effect.  The infection rate started rising around the beginning of June, and the death rate started rising two weeks later.

Second

The states are taking their own sweet time reporting their death totals.  And since death totals are what are freaking everyone out, they’re really lagging.  If you got it, and it was like the flu, and you were out for a week, and moved on with your life, no one would be freaking out.  But it’s at least 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu.

There’s a big lag in the numbers of reported cases of COVID-19.  However, we can find all the numbers after the fact by comparing what would normally be the fatality rate for all adults in a normal month of June and looking at June 2020, and taking the diff.  That’s how we know that the death rate is vastly underreported.

At the end of the day, no one is going to go out and buy stuff like they used to until both of these issues — the rising rate of infection and the rising death tolls.  And the only way to get it down is, sigh, everyone wears a mask.  Period.

This gigantic rise in cases is really, really, really bad.

Stats:

  • 36,032,329 tests completed.
  • 2,966,224 positive tests.  Dear God, this is up by 75,000 in 24 hours.  This has gone up so much and so fast that I need to check my favorite source’s data source, but I think it’s JHU.
  • 132,719 confirmed deaths.  This number is starting to climb again too.
  • 70,499 cases in MD with 3,344 dead
  • 1 in every 121 has it in Howard County.

YIKES.